2021.04.20 CFS Grain Update

The Corn and Soybean markets have been showing strength as we test contract highs and have been making new highs on some old crop and new crop contracts.  The markets have been reacting to dry conditions and dry forecasts in southern Brazil growing regions, as well as cold temperatures in the US delaying planting and concerns for drought and dry forecasts for US growing regions. 
Earlier this month the April WASDE Report left the soybean ending-stocks at 120 million but did lower the corn ending-stocks to 1.352 from the previous 1.502 billion bushels.  Tight stocks and the lower March Acreage Intentions of 87.6 million soybean acres and 91.144 million corn acres there are concerns on stocks being even tighter a year from now if we do not see trendline yields and continue the export program we had this year.  Our last December 21 recommendation to sell 10% at 4.98 futures just filled to get to 35-45% sold.  Our soybean recommendation to sell 10% at 12.98 November 21 futures to move to 35-45% sold just filled.  We have not had any official recommendations for new crop 22 corn, but it has traded around 4.75. 
Currently ethanol and feed mills are the hot basis markets, with basis being positive in some locations.  And with the inverted corn and bean markets we are seeing basis premiums on the July versus the May.